It’s time for one of my favourite articles of the year as I make my Predictions for the upcoming Formula 1 Season. As always, I will start with 10 Starter Predictions before moving on to the Drivers’ and Constructors’ Championship. Also, it’s worth remembering that I wouldn’t worry if I predict your favourites to struggle as I have a pretty good track record of making terrible Predictions! Right, let’s get started!
10 Starter Predictions
My First Prediction is there will be 4 different Race Winners in 2024. There were three different winners last year and I think there’s one other person I think will win this year (who didn’t win last year).
My Second Prediction is that 7 different teams will stand on the Podium at least once in 2024. There were six last year so I have mixed feelings about this one!
My Third Prediction is there will be 3 different Sprint Winners over the course of this season. I’ll even step it up a notch and say they will all come from different teams!
My Fourth Prediction is Pierre Gasly will be the Driver who retires the most in 2024. I don’t want this to happen to Pierre, but I’ve just got a sneaking feeling about it!
My Fifth Prediction is Logan Sargeant will score more points this year than he did in his Rookie Season. Realistically, this should happen as Logan only scored 1 point in 2023 (P10 at COTA).
My Sixth Prediction is not every Driver will score points in 2024. This did happen last year (with Nyck de Vries) and I fancy it to happen again this season!
My Seventh Prediction is there will be at least one substitute appearance in 2024. What I mean by this is at least one driver that’s not currently on the F1 Grid will drive at least one Grand Prix this season. However, I will say that I won’t be including them on my Drivers’ Championship Predictions down below.
My Eighth Prediction is Kick Sauber will announce a brand-new Driver Lineup for 2025. This means that Sauber will get rid of both Valtteri Bottas and Zhou Guanyu, and you can find out who I think will replace them in My 2025 F1 Driver Lineup Predictions in a few days time (yes, we’re teasing now)!
My Ninth Prediction is Lewis Hamilton will not win a Race in his final year with Mercedes. Lewis obviously hasn’t won since the 2021 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, and I just have a feeling that that is going to continue for another year.
My Tenth and final Starter Prediction is Max Verstappen will win 20 Races in 2024. Max won 19 out of the 22 Races last year, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Verstappen break his own record by the end of this season!
The Drivers’ Championship
P20: Kevin Magnussen
Kevin Magnussen is going to be under a lot of pressure to perform in 2024. Kevin’s achievements so far include winning the 2008 Danish Formula Ford Championship, finishing second in the 2009 Formula Renault 2.0 NEC Championship, finishing third in the 2010 German Formula 3 Championship, second in the 2011 British Formula 3 Championship, and winning the 2013 Formula Renault 3.5 Series Title (ahead of Stoffel Vandoorne and Antonio Felix da Costa)! Last year, Magnussen struggled, scoring just 3 points (all P10’s) on his way to finishing 19th in the Championship. When it comes to Formula 1, K-Mag has achieved 1 Pole Position and 1 Podium in 163 Races. Magnussen’s highest Championship finish was 9th in 2018. Overall, I’m worried for Kevin Magnussen as I think he’ll struggle once again this year and that will ultimately result in Magnussen losing his Formula 1 seat (again).
P19: Logan Sargeant
Logan Sargeant knows he needs to improve substantially on his Rookie Season if he’s to keep his Williams drive for another year. Logan’s achievements so far include finishing second in the 2016/17 Formula 4 UAE Championship, third in the 2017 F4 British Championship, and third in the 2020 FIA Formula 3 Championship (just 4 points off Championship Winner Oscar Piastri)! Last year, Sargeant was poor and he ultimately finished 21st in the Standings with just 1 point to his name. When it comes to Formula 1, Sargeant has scored one point in 22 Races. Overall, Logan Sargeant is fortunate to still be in Formula 1 if we’re being honest, and whilst I do think he’ll improve slightly on last year’s efforts, I still don’t think Logan’s going to do enough to keep his Williams seat for 2025 and beyond.
P18: Zhou Guanyu
This kind of feels like a now-or-never season for Zhou Guanyu. Zhou’s achievements so far include finishing second in the 2015 Italian F4 Championship, third in the 2021 FIA Formula 2 Championship, and he also managed to win the F3 Asian Championship that also took place in 2021. Last year, Zhou only managed three points finishes all year (all P9’s) on his way to finishing 18th in the Standings. When it comes to Formula 1, Zhou Guanyu has scored 12 points in 44 Races. Zhou’s highest Championship finish was 18th in both 2022 and 2023. Overall, I like Zhou Guanyu, but I don’t feel like he’s shown enough for me to really expect him to kick on and improve, especially given Kick Sauber’s performances over the past few years (as Alfa Romeo).
P17: Nico Hulkenberg
Nico Hulkenberg will be aiming to push Haas forward in 2024. Nico’s achievements so far include winning the 2005 Formula BMW ADAC Championship (ahead of Sebastien Buemi), the 2006 A1 Grand Prix Title, finishing third in the 2007 Formula 3 Euro Series before winning it the following year, and winning the 2009 GP2 Series. It’s also worth mentioning that The Hulk won the 2015 24 Hours of Le Mans Race! Last year, Hulkenberg had a decent year, but he was only able to finish in the points twice and he ultimately finished 16th in the Championship. When it comes to Formula 1, Hulkenberg has achieved 1 Pole Position in 206 Races. Nico’s highest Championship finish was 7th in 2018. Overall, Nico Hulkenberg is a strong racing driver and I’m sure he will perform at a good level. However, I can’t say the same thing about his Haas which is why I can’t place Nico any higher than P17.
P16: Valtteri Bottas
Valtteri Bottas needs to step up in 2024 just as much as he needs Kick Sauber to improve. Valtteri’s achievements so far include finishing third in the 2007 Formula Renault 2.0 NEC Championship before winning it the following year as well as the Eurocup Formula Renault 2.0 Title, finishing third in both the 2009 and 2010 Formula 3 Euro Series before he won the 2011 GP3 Series. Last year, Bottas managed to finish 15th in the Championship after a disappointing year. When it comes to Formula 1, Bottas has achieved 10 Race Wins, 20 Pole Positions, and 67 Podiums in 11 seasons. Valtteri’s highest Championship finish was second in both 2019 and 2020. Overall, you already know I have Valtteri Bottas to leave Kick Sauber at the end of the year and I think that will be a mutual decision made by both sides.
P15: Alex Albon
Alex Albon is looking to build on a great 2023 Season. Alex’s achievements so far include finishing third in the 2014 Eurocup Formula Renault 2.0 Championship, second in the 2016 GP3 Series (behind Charles Leclerc), and third in the 2018 FIA Formula 2 Championship (behind George Russell and Lando Norris). Last year, Albon had a great season on his way to finishing 13th in the Championship. When it comes to Formula 1, Albon has achieved 2 Podiums in 82 Races, and his highest Championship finish was P7 in 2020. Overall, I really rate Alex Albon and I expect him to have another strong year. Whilst P15 may seem a bit low, I do expect Alex to be a lot closer to the guys in front of him (in the Standings) than the guys behind.
P14: Yuki Tsunoda
It’s important for Yuki Tsunoda to make this year his best year in Formula 1 (so far). Yuki’s achievements so far include winning the 2017 JAF Japan Formula 4 Title, finishing third in the F4 Japanese Championship (in the same year) before winning it the following year, and finishing third in the 2020 FIA Formula 2 Championship. Last year, Tsunoda had his best year in F1 to date as he ultimately went on to finish 14th in the Championship. When it comes to Formula 1, Tsunoda has 61 points in 66 Races, and his highest Championship finish was P14 both in 2021 and 2023. Overall, points-wise, I expect this to be Yuki Tsunoda’s strongest year in Formula 1 to date. However, I still think Yuki will play second fiddle to his teammate and that will create questions surrounding his future in the sport.
P13: Pierre Gasly
Pierre Gasly enters 2024 looking to establish himself as Alpine’s Number 1 Driver. Pierre’s achievements so far include finishing third in the 2011 French F4 Championship, winning the 2013 Eurocup Formula Renault 2.0 Title (in a field with the likes of Esteban Ocon, Jake Dennis, and Nyck de Vries), finishing second in the 2014 Formula Renault 3.5 Series (behind Carlos Sainz), winning the 2016 GP2 Series, and finishing second in the 2017 Super Formula Championship. Last year, Gasly had a good first year with Alpine which included a Podium finish at Zandvoort on his way to 11th in the Drivers’ Championship. When it comes to Formula 1, Gasly has achieved 1 Race Win and 4 Podiums in 130 Races. Pierre’s highest Championship finish was 7th in 2019. Overall, I think Pierre Gasly will outdrive his teammate this year. However, as you already know, I envision a lot of mechanical problems for Pierre during the 2024 Season which may (or may not) ultimately lead to The Gasman leaving Alpine at the end of the year.
P12: Lance Stroll
There’s no doubt that Lance Stroll has to step up in 2024. Lance’s achievements so far include winning the 2014 Italian F4 Championship, the 2015 Toyota Racing Series, and the 2016 FIA Formula 3 European Championship. Last year, Stroll was comprehensively beaten by his teammate, finishing 132 points behind in the Championship in which he finished 10th. When it comes to Formula 1, Stroll has achieved 1 Pole Position and 3 Podiums in 7 seasons. Lance’s highest Championship finish was 10th last year. Overall, there’s no real reason for me to expect Lance Stroll to step up this year given how he’s performed in recent seasons. To make matters worse for Lance, I don’t expect his Aston Martin to be as quick as it was at the start of 2023.
P11: Esteban Ocon
Esteban Ocon knows that 2024 is a big year in his career. Esteban’s achievements so far include finishing third in the 2013 Eurocup Formula Renault 2.0 Championship, winning the 2014 FIA Formula 3 European Championship (ahead of a certain Max Verstappen), and winning the 2015 GP3 Series. Last year, Ocon struggled a bit and he was ultimately beaten by his teammate as a result (he finished 12th). When it comes to Formula 1, Ocon has achieved 1 Race Win and 3 Podiums in 133 Races. Esteban’s highest Championship finish was P8 in both 2017 and 2022. Overall, Esteban Ocon knows that this is a big year for him and whilst beating his teammate in the Standings would be very nice, I still think he needs to outperform him as well, and that’s something I can’t see happening.
P10: Daniel Ricciardo
Daniel Ricciardo is looking to get back to his best. Daniel’s achievements so far include finishing third in the 2006 Formula BMW Asia Championship, winning the 2008 Formula Renault 2.0 WEC Title whilst also finishing second in the 2008 Eurocup Formula Renault 2.0 Championship, winning the 2009 British F3 Championship, and finishing second in the 2010 Formula Renault 3.5 Series. Last year, Ricciardo returned to the Grid by joining Alpha Tauri, and despite an unfortunate hand injury, Danny Ric still managed to put in a couple of strong performances. When it comes to Formula 1, Ricciardo has achieved 8 Race Wins, 3 Pole Positions, and 32 Podiums in about 12 seasons. Daniel’s highest Championship finish was third in both 2014 and 2016. Overall, I expect a big year from Daniel Ricciardo that will ultimately pile the pressure on a certain Red Bull Driver for 2025.
P9: Fernando Alonso
Fernando Alonso is hoping that his Aston Martin car is as strong in 2024 as it was at the start of the 2023 Season. Fernando’s achievements so far include winning the 1999 Euro Open by Nissan Championship, the 2018 and 2019 24 Hours of Le Mans Races, the 2018/19 FIA World Endurance Championship, and of course the 2005 and 2006 Formula 1 World Championships! Last year, Alonso drove brilliantly, scoring 8 Podium finishes on his way to finishing 4th in the Championship. When it comes to Formula 1, Alonso has achieved 32 Race Wins, 22 Pole Positions, 106 Podiums, and 2 World Championships in his 20-year career! Overall, I think Fernando Alonso will once again get the maximum out of his Aston Martin, but I’m not fully convinced that his car will be as good as it was last year. Whether that results in Fernando leaving Aston at the end of the year is yet to be discovered!
P8: Lewis Hamilton
Lewis Hamilton is hoping for a strong final year with Mercedes. Lewis’ achievements so far include finishing third in the 2002 Formula Renault UK Championship before winning it the following year, winning the 2005 Formula 3 Euro Series, winning the 2006 GP2 Series, and there’s only the small matter of 7 Formula 1 World Championships! Last year, Hamilton drove a really underrated season which ultimately resulted in him scoring 6 Podiums on his way to third in the Championship. When it comes to Formula 1, Hamilton has achieved 103 Race Wins, 104 Pole Positions, 197 Podiums, and 7 World Championships during his 17-year career. Overall, I don’t know why, but I just feel like Lewis Hamilton’s last year with Mercedes is going to go wrong. Not only are Mercedes more likely to prioritise George Russell as the season goes on (they certainly should anyway), but I honestly can see Lewis struggling and just wanting the season to end.
P7: Oscar Piastri
Oscar Piastri is looking to build off an impressive Rookie Season. Oscar’s achievements so far include finishing second in the 2017 F4 British Championship, winning the 2019 Formula Renault Eurocup Title, winning the 2020 FIA Formula 3 Championship, and winning the 2021 FIA Formula 2 Championship. Last year, Piastri showed a lot of pace and even picked up a Sprint Victory in Qatar on his way to 9th in the Championship. When it comes to Formula 1, Piastri has achieved 2 Podiums and 97 points in 22 Races. Overall, I expect Oscar Piastri to close the gap to his teammate this year. I still think Oscar will be the 2nd Driver at McLaren, but he will have another strong year that results in plenty more points than his Rookie year.
P6: George Russell
There’s a lot of pressure on George Russell’s shoulders heading into 2024. George’s achievements so far include winning the 2014 BRDC Formula 4 Championship, finishing third in the 2016 FIA Formula 3 European Championship, winning the 2017 GP3 Series, and winning the 2018 FIA Formula 2 Championship (ahead of Norris, Albon, and de Vries). Last year, Russell had arguably his toughest year in Formula 1 to date, scoring just 2 Podium finishes on his way to 8th in the Championship. When it comes to Formula 1, Russell has achieved 1 Race Win, 1 Pole Position, and 11 Podiums in 5 seasons. George’s highest Championship finish was 4th in 2022. Overall, I’m expecting George Russell to bounce back somewhat this season and that’s ultimately why I have him to finish ahead of his teammate in the Standings. However, I’d be surprised if George finishes any higher than this.
P5: Carlos Sainz
Carlos Sainz is looking to prove Ferrari wrong in 2024. Carlos’ achievements so far include finishing second in the 2011 Eurocup Formula Renault 2.0 Championship whilst also winning the Formula Renault 2.0 NEC Title (in the same year), and winning the 2014 Formula Renault 3.5 Series. Last year, Sainz may have finished 7th in the Championship, but he will always be known as the only non-Red Bull Winner in 2023 (Singapore). When it comes to Formula 1, Sainz has achieved 2 Race Wins, 5 Pole Positions, and 18 Podiums. Carlos’ highest Championship finish was 5th in both 2021 and 2022. Overall, either Carlos Sainz’s year is going to go terribly or great. For me, I can see Carlos having a great year which will raise questions as to why Ferrari decided to get rid of him in the first place. However, I can’t really see Sainz finishing any higher than 5th as he won’t exactly get the preferential treatment at the Scuderia.
P4: Lando Norris
Lando Norris is hoping that 2024 will finally be the year where he wins in Formula 1. Lando’s achievements so far include finishing third in the 2014 Ginetta Junior Championship, winning the 2015 MSA Formula Championship, winning the 2016 Eurocup Formula Renault 2.0, Formula Renault 2.0 NEC, and Toyota Racing Series Titles, winning the 2017 FIA Formula 3 European Championship, and finishing second in the 2018 FIA Formula 2 Championship. Last year, Norris had a strong year, scoring 7 Podiums on his way to 6th in the Championship. When it comes to Formula 1, Norris has achieved 1 Pole Position and 13 Podiums in 5 seasons. Lando’s highest Championship finish was 6th in both 2021 and 2023. Overall, there’s no doubt that Lando Norris is one of the best drivers on the Grid. I think Lando will have another great year, but I still can’t see him winning a Grand Prix. However, I do think Norris might win a Sprint Race in 2024.
P3: Charles Leclerc
Charles Leclerc is hoping to get back to winning ways in 2024. Charles’ achievements so far include finishing second in the 2014 Formula Renault 2.0 Alps Championship, winning the 2016 GP3 Series, and winning the 2017 FIA Formula 2 Championship. Last year, Leclerc showed a lot of good pace, but he could only manage 5th in the Championship without a win to his name. When it comes to Formula 1, Leclerc has achieved 5 Race Wins, 23 Pole Positions, and 30 Podiums in 6 seasons. Charles’ highest Championship finish was second in 2022. Overall, I expect a strong year from Charles Leclerc that will result in at least 1 Race victory in 2024.
P2: Sergio Perez
Sergio Perez has to perform in 2024 if he wants to keep his Red Bull seat going forward. Sergio’s achievements so far include finishing second in the 2010 GP2 Series. Last year, despite winning 2 Races and finishing second in the Championship, Checo struggled and finished some 290 points behind his World Championship-winning teammate! When it comes to Formula 1, Perez has achieved 6 Race Wins, 3 Pole Positions, and 35 Podiums in 13 seasons. Checo’s highest Championship finish was second last year. Overall, I think Sergio Perez will definitely win a Race this year, but I can’t see Checo landing many (if at all any) punches on his teammate when it comes to winning the World Championship.
P1: Max Verstappen
Honestly, I would be stunned if Max Verstappen doesn’t end the year as a 4-time World Champion. Max’s achievements so far include finishing third in the 2014 FIA European Formula 3 Championship as well as winning 3 Formula 1 World Drivers’ Championships. Last year, Verstappen broke basically every Formula 1 season record on his way to winning the World Championship by a stupendous 290 points! When it comes to Formula 1, Verstappen has achieved 54 Race Wins, 32 Pole Positions, 98 Podiums, and 3 World Championships in 9 seasons. Overall, I actually think Max Verstappen will win more Races in 2024 than he did in 2023 which is a scary thought when you think of it. Max is clearly the best driver on the Grid right now, and I’m going to say that Verstappen will win his 4th World Title by about 250 points.
The Constructors’ Championship
P10: Haas
I’d be surprised if Haas didn’t end the year at the back of the field once again. Haas have only ever finished higher than 8th in the Constructors’ once (5th in 2018) and the fact that their new Team Principal Ayao Komatsu has said they will be playing catch up at the start of the year makes me think Haas are going to be in for yet another long and overall tough year.
P9: Kick Sauber
Just like Haas, I expect Kick Sauber to spend most of the year towards the back of the field. If you take out 2022 where they finished 6th in the Championship, Sauber (also known as Alfa Romeo) haven’t finished higher than 8th in the Championship since 2013 (where they finished 7th). I’m sure both Valtteri Bottas and Zhou Guanyu will have a couple of great performances here and there, but I very much think this team is just waiting for Audi to arrive (in 2026).
P8: Williams
There’s no doubt that Williams took a good step forward last year, finishing 7th in the Constructors’ Standings which was actually their highest finish since 2017 (where they finished 5th). I also actually think Williams will score more points this year than in 2023, but I still expect them to drop a place in the Standings due to the teams around them being better and also having a stronger driver pairing. However, what I will say is Williams dropping down to 8th wouldn’t be a disaster for them and in fact, what’s more important for them is securing a strong driver lineup for 2025, and more importantly, 2026.
P7: Alpine
If you thought last year was disappointing for Alpine, I think this year could be even worse. Last year was the French team’s worst season since 2017 (P6 as Renault) and I still don’t think the decision to get rid of Otmar Szafnauer was a good one. I also think the Renault Engine is easily the worst on the Grid which doesn’t help and you already know how I feel about how Pierre Gasly’s season’s going to go. Whilst I think Alpine will be close to finishing 6th, either way, I think it’s going to be another disappointing year for the Enstone-based team.
P6: Visa Cash App RB
I honestly expect a strong “first” year for Visa Cash App RB. Alpha Tauri (as they were known then) ended last year on a strong note and they’ve made a lot of great signings over the off-season that feels like a message of intent. It also looks like VCARB are going to be working more closely with Red Bull Racing which should only help them, and I also expect Daniel Ricciardo to be on it from the get-go. So yeah, I think Visa Cash App RB will do enough over the course of the year to finish 6th in the Constructors’ Championship.
P5: Aston Martin
I honestly can’t see a world where Aston Martin finish any higher or any lower than P5 in the Championship this year. Aston had a good 2023 Season, but they also massively dropped off as the season went on and there will always be question marks surrounding the ability of Lance Stroll. Whilst I still think the Silverstone-based team will have some strong weekends that result in a couple/a few Fernando Alonso Podiums, I just can’t see Aston Martin finishing any higher than this and I think Aston Martin themselves would be a little bit disappointed with this.
P4: Mercedes
I’ll be honest, I have concerns about Mercedes heading into the 2024 Season. Mercedes did well to finish second in the Championship last year, especially when you consider they changed the concept of their car midway through. However, Lewis Hamilton wouldn’t leave Merc unless he felt like they weren’t going to deliver him a Race, and more importantly, a Championship-winning car. I don’t know why, but I can see Mercedes having their worst year since 2012 (where they finished 5th).
P3: McLaren
I think McLaren will have a strong 2024 Season. McLaren were superb in the second half of last year and realistically, their driver lineup of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri is only going to get stronger after every season. I also think the fact that McLaren don’t need to/won’t get distracted with their 2025 Driver Lineup will help them and yeah, if they start the season well (something they haven’t managed to achieve so far in these regulations), I can totally see McLaren breaking into the Top 3 this season!
P2: Ferrari
For me, Ferrari will have the second fastest car for the large majority of the 2024 Formula 1 Season. Ferrari ended last year very well, they have (in my opinion) the strongest driver pairing on the Grid, and they’ve managed to finish 2nd in the Championship in 5 of the last 9 seasons. I also think Ferrari will win Races in 2024, but I still don’t think they’re going to be anywhere near the eventual Champions.
P1: Red Bull Racing
Can it really be anyone else? Red Bull absolutely decimated the competition last year, winning 21 out of the 22 Races on their way to finishing 451 points ahead of second in the Constructors’! We also know from the past that when Red Bull have the car, they deliver on Championship Titles and it would take a rather monumental downfall for them to not end the year as the best team on the Grid. In fact, I think Red Bull are going to be more focused on who’s going to be Max Verstappen’s teammate going forward from 2025 than their actual car (as the season goes on).
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